Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2155
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 19 2025 01:53:05

ACUS11 KWNS 190153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190152=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-190245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0852 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...western Tennessee...northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626...

Valid 190152Z - 190245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW626.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms across western Tennessee has
seen an uptick in lightning activity over the last 30 minutes, with
somewhat better organized radar presentation. Velocity from KNQA
shows 40-45 kt winds around 1-1.5 KFT. Surface objective analysis
would suggest that the southerly low-level jet is increasing around
30-40 kts. The thermodynamic profile remains weak, but increasing
shear for organization may allow for a period of increasing damaging
wind potential. At this time, uncertainty in longevity of this
threat leads to low confidence in a downstream watch but local
extension of WW626 may be warranted.

...Thornton.. 10/19/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8Vm42veV2vMB-ngcdYODVuvSmQGFJZ88NEXYIcHCGouXVNmGpdeAtxDFDpPmrDKLwZ80w9t5W=
SHCF9_EZsi73velr4Q$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...

LAT...LON   35388945 35568939 35738922 35778889 35778871 35618850
            35368852 35128863 34768903 34798912 34728930 34758948
            34788957 35388945=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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