Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 19 2025 01:02:05 ACUS01 KWNS 190102 SWODY1 SPC AC 190100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS AND OH VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening into late tonight across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi into parts of western Alabama. Some potential for locally damaging wind and a couple brief tornadoes may also continue into parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. ....ArkLaMiss into parts of AL/TN and the FL Panhandle... Widespread strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening across the ArkLaMiss region, in advance of an ejecting mid/upper-level shortwave trough that is approaching the lower/mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will remain rather modest, but strengthening deep-layer flow fields will continue to support organized convection as storms move eastward across LA/MS into parts of TN/AL and the FL Panhandle. Continued storm clustering and possible QLCS development will support potential for scattered damaging winds this evening into the overnight hours. Increasing low-level shear and boundary-layer moisture will also result in some supercell and QLCS tornado potential, especially from northern LA into MS, where the richest boundary-layer moisture (with dewpoints near/above 70 F) will reside. ....Ohio Valley vicinity... As a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough begins to phase with the shortwave approaching the MS Valley, a surface low is forecast to deepen as it moves northeastward toward Lower MI, accompanied by a substantial increase in low/midlevel flow fields. As this occurs, some increase in convective organization will be possible as ongoing convection moves northeastward across parts of the OH Valley into Lower MI. Increasingly scant instability may tend to limit the magnitude of the severe threat, but some potential for locally damaging wind and a brief tornado may continue through the late evening. There is also some potential for a band of low-topped convection with gusty winds to develop along a surging cold front prior to the end of the forecast period. ....Parts of central/eastern OK... A few strong to severe storms have developed this evening across parts of central/eastern OK along a southeastward-moving cold front. Increasing CINH and decreasing instability with time will lead to an eventual weakening trend, but very isolated hail and strong gusts cannot be ruled out through around 02Z. ...Dean.. 10/19/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .