Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2154
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 18 2025 21:49:02

ACUS11 KWNS 182148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182148=20
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-182315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...western Kentucky...western Tennessee...northeastern
Arkansas...southeast Missouri...southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 182148Z - 182315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of WW623 will
likely be needed to cover potential for re-intensification of
thunderstorms and the damaging wind threat.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms continues north and east
within WW623, with some history of damaging wind. The line has
weakened within the last hour. As the trough continues eastward
taking a gradual negative tilt with strong upper-level flow
overspreading the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, a notable
southerly low-level jet response is expected as the surface low
deepens near the Great Lakes. This will bring moist air northward
and provide greater shear for organization and possible
re-intensification of thunderstorm activity. An increase in the
threat for damaging winds is expected, and perhaps a line embedded
tornado as low level shear increases. A new Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will be needed to cover this potential.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 10/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-P18DzhFzzaWKmXWnkUN43rnIwQzUYpIX3G5PBcbqx77V2wHqXl-nc40J3-woVix-bKD5GEqi=
Al7v3wTLCKAhw9R_fg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37369120 37959055 38248958 38408895 38398823 38178799
            37608781 36578817 35688870 35458972 35619090 35719159
            36659137 37369120=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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