Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2153
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 18 2025 21:42:32

ACUS11 KWNS 182142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182141=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-182345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...Arklatex

Concerning...Tornado Watch 624...625...

Valid 182141Z - 182345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 624, 625 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe will focus along a corridor from central
Arkansas across northwest Louisiana into extreme east Texas over the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong, low-amplitude short-wave trough is advancing
quickly across eastern OK/north central TX. Large-scale forcing
ahead of this feature appears to be aiding a considerable amount of
convection across the Arklatex with roughly half a dozen supercells
embedded within this convection from central AR into northwest LA.
Convection is quasi linear in nature across AR into northeast TX,
and outflow is surging well ahead of the southwestern flank as it
advances/develops eastward. The more discrete activity is evolving
across the more buoyant air mass farther south along the Sabine
River into western LA. This activity should spread/develop northeast
into the early-evening hours as LLJ strengthens and veers into
northern MS after sunset. With time, some recovery is expected
across northeast LA into this portion of the Mid South as the LLJ
encourages a more moist boundary layer to lift into northern MS.
Later this evening a new tornado watch may be warranted downstream.

...Darrow.. 10/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_Udcd1CJLwddkXNQp_gTEL7CtKuJ530Qmvhoc6C502TIuXfprAkvIKX1aXnlCpFEBpNYnXlSE=
qH1eVSVF_tQBbt8DLU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31639490 33229325 34249247 34869207 34739162 33419189
            31229323 31639490=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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