Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2151
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 18 2025 17:54:28

ACUS11 KWNS 181753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181753=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-181900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas...northwestern
Louisiana...southwestern Arkansas...and southeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 181753Z - 181900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Initial storms may produce damaging gusts and large hail
across portions of eastern Texas, northwestern Louisiana,
southwestern Arkansas, and southeastern Oklahoma, and the threat for
tornadoes may increase later this afternoon. A watch will likely be
needed.

DISCUSSION...A pacific front is impinging upon a moist and unstable
air mass across eastern Texas, southern Arkansas, and western
Louisiana. Additionally, a mid-level cloud deck across much of
eastern Oklahoma and central Arkansas has resulted in the
development of a weak differential heating boundary near the Red
River and points just eastward. Convection has begun to develop east
of the pacific front along a confluence line in the moist sector,
and the differential heating boundary may provide a focus for
additional development through the afternoon. While ample buoyancy
exists for severe convection, shear is relatively modest, with ~11
kts 0-1 km shear present on the KSHV VWP. Though the low-level and
deep-layer shear should improve with time as a stronger mid-level
jet moves in from the west later this afternoon, and short-term
forecast profiles show improving low-level shear by later this
afternoon.

Given improving mid-level flow and deep-layer shear this afternoon,
some threat for damaging gusts and large hail is expected with these
storms. Additionally, given the relatively gentle forcing for storms
in the short term and a favorable orientation of the shear vector,
storms are expected to remain at least semi-discrete through the
afternoon, and this may result in a greater tornado threat when the
shear improves later in the day.

...Supinie/Thompson.. 10/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6zFW9NwkhKR_ChcCSRREpZ6gccS44NXgIo4NVEq7_lyW-PqRYiiXeyfX0HL2RXw_riaY1e6hN=
4SUCx_ZFy6vBLcZICY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   32019405 31899447 31699537 31739620 32129664 32529667
            33229610 33859554 34059402 33729346 33099337 32019405=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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