Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2150
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 18 2025 14:23:58

ACUS11 KWNS 181423
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181423=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-181630-

Mesoscale Discussion 2150
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Areas affected...parts of north central Texas...eastern
Oklahoma...northwestern Arkansas...southwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 181423Z - 181630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The gradual evolution of an increasingly organized line of
storms appears probable through 11 AM to 1 PM CDT.  Stronger storms
may initially pose a risk for marginally severe hail, before
potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes
become a more prominent concern.  It appears probable that one or
more severe weather watches will be needed, though how soon remains
a bit uncertain.

DISCUSSION...While the boundary layer remains relatively cool, a
moistening southerly return flow characterized by mid 60s+ F surface
dew points is contributing to increasing potential instability in a
corridor across the southern Great Plains into portions of the Ozark
Plateau.
This is occurring as mid-level forcing for ascent downstream of a
notable short wave trough begins to spread across the Interstate 35
corridor of Oklahoma and north central Texas, supporting an
expanding area of convective development and embedded thunderstorm
activity.

As the forcing for ascent continues to spread northeastward/eastward
over the next few hours, and insolation within the warm sector
contributes to erosion of inhibition for boundary-layer parcels, a
gradual intensification of storms appears probable.  In the presence
of strengthening deep-layer shear, as a 50-60+ kt southwesterly jet
around 500 mb noses across the Red River vicinity, the evolution of
an increasingly organized squall line appears possible by 17-18Z, if
not a bit earlier.

...Kerr/Thompson.. 10/18/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!92t1JITjMn0hXe2yiCSeKBf4_h4pDEZLFQbN-7vPc6XseTFx6BWOTEP-ndekCG-IH2RuX8CMF=
zcRgIwgMoM3Mw982rs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   37089472 36419317 34559481 32189693 33019764 34539693
            36319560 37089472=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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