Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 16 2025 19:04:11

ACUS03 KWNS 161904
SWODY3
SPC AC 161903

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. A
few tornadoes, damaging winds and hail will be possible.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the degree of severe storm
potential on Saturday, with a range of model solutions regarding
trough speed, early day precipitation and air mass quality. At the
very least, a broad Slight Risk remains reasonable given these
uncertainties.

On the large scale, a southern-stream wave moving across the
southern Plains is expected to phase with another system digging
rapidly southeastward out of the northern Rockies, resulting in a
deepening, progressive trough moving across the Plains and MS
Valley. A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will already be in
place from TX into eastern OK early on Saturday, with low 60s F
extending northward into parts of the Midwest ahead of a developing
surface low from IL into IN.

While low-level moistening combined with cooling aloft will
generally lead to increasing instability, several models indicate
early/ongoing thunderstorm potential roughly from OK into MO and IL.
At the very least, this activity should generally become more
organized as the cold front strengthens with increasing large scale
ascent, leading to wind damage potential. If the less-amplified
solution verifies, potentially strong instability could build during
the day, with more of a supercell risk along with tornado/hail
potential.

In deference to the latest model solutions, probabilities for
Saturday have been expanded a bit eastward.

...Jewell.. 10/16/2025

$$

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