Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 15 2025 00:59:45

ACUS01 KWNS 150059
SWODY1
SPC AC 150058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this evening.

....Discussion...
The 00Z ABQ RAOB showed a moderately favorable severe environment
with around 700 J/kg MLCAPE and nearly 60 knots of effective shear.
Forcing is somewhat nebulous and has resulted in isolated convection
up to this point (limited to northern New Mexico around 01Z). While
the boundary layer will continue to cool and stabilize, some
mid-level cooling/moistening may result in increasing elevated
instability by 04-05Z. Given the strong wind profile, any storms
which develop could pose some isolated hail/wind threat for a few
hours late this evening into the early overnight hours.

...Bentley.. 10/15/2025

$$

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