Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 14 2025 16:01:43

ACUS01 KWNS 141601
SWODY1
SPC AC 141600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF COASTAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OVER PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO FAR
WEST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible across parts New Mexico and far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. An isolated threat for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
tornado will gradually diminish through early afternoon for portions
of coastal southern California.

....Coastal Southern California...

Shallow/low-topped convective showers will continue to spread east
across the region through early afternoon. Instability will remain
scant, with generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE noted in SPC
mesoanalysis and forecast soundings. Most of the stronger gusts
reported in the past couple of hours have coincided with higher
elevation observation sites, and are likely driven by a belt of
40-50 kt southwest flow from 850-700 mb. Locally strong gusts may
persist another couple of hours before weakening by midday/early
afternoon local time.

....New Mexico and Far West Texas...

A belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will continue to
stream across the southern Rockies today, sandwiched between an
upper ridge to the east and an upper trough over the West. Modest
boundary layer moisture will continue to spread northward across the
region, with surface dewpoints mainly in the 50s to low 60s F and PW
values over 1 inch. This will be sufficient for 1000-1500 J/kg
MLCAPE values, despite marginal midlevel lapse rates (6.5 to 7
C/km). Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear
magnitudes greater then 35-40 kt suggest convection could become
strong at times, with perhaps transient supercell characteristics.
Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail approaching 1 inch
diameter will be possible with the strongest cells. A greater severe
risk should remain tempered by the modest thermodynamic environment.

...Leitman/Halbert.. 10/14/2025

$$

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