Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2146
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 14 2025 12:43:38

ACUS11 KWNS 141243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141242=20
CAZ000-141415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern Coastal California

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622...

Valid 141242Z - 141415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging gust may occur this morning.

DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough and an associated 80+ kt
mid-level jet streak is currently overspreading the LA Basin, with
60 F surface dewpoints impinging on the shoreline. Intense dynamic
forcing currently supports a strong vertical wind field and
accompanying shear profile over southern CA, where a low-topped
confluence band is currently progressing. Some of the stronger
showers in the region have supported damaging gusts over the past
couple of hours, including a measured severe gust and wind damage
report in Ventura/Los Angeles counties. The current thinking is that
the potential for an additional damaging or perhaps severe gust will
remain in place through the morning hours as the low-topped
convective band continues to take advantage of scant buoyancy in the
region.

...Squitieri/Gleason.. 10/14/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8YWnfOk5xhbkoqXelspWhqVOKxC8VT7fJgsUnYieIcFe4EVfYsfitTPZJIiPqlF7u54DcmlIl=
CnJ0mbBHNOdmUrUtX4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON   34301982 34701949 34761898 34641846 34451799 34281775
            34051768 33841774 33731800 33741851 33891920 33971950
            34301982=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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