Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 13 2025 22:31:44 AWUS01 KWNH 132231 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-140430- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1193 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 630 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Areas affected...Central/Eastern AZ...Western/Central NM...Southwest CO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 132230Z - 140430Z SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact areas of central and eastern AZ through western and central NM along with southwest CO. Given elevated streamflows from recent rainfall along with locally high rainfall rates this evening, additional isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible. DISCUSSION...GOES-W visible satellite imagery along with regional radar data shows a broken axis of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of central and eastern AZ through western and central NM, with an emphasis on areas near and adjacent to the Mogollon Rim. The convection continues to be enhanced by the gradual northeastward advance of modest shortwave energy that is embedded within the deeper layer southwest flow ahead of a stronger upper-level trough and closed low dropping south along the West Coast. The latest RAP analysis does show as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across areas of south-central AZ and separately across far northwest NM and far southwest CO near the Four Corners. The instability in particular over south-central AZ continues to combine with moist low to mid-level southerly flow to support convection with high rainfall rates that are occasionally reaching 1.5+ inches/hour. Elevated effective bulk shear is also favoring some organized multicells and persistence of the activity that coupled with orographics into the Mogollon Rim is yielding heavier rainfall totals. More recently, satellite imagery has been showing some greater vertical depth of convection across western NM and also in a more cellular manner across parts of southwest CO where improving instability and moist upslope flow into the San Juan Mountains is fostering an uptick in stronger thunderstorm activity. Going through the evening hours, as moist flow and at least modest instability continue to interact with the aforementioned shortwave energy and favorable orographic environment, there should continue to be broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Additional rainfall amounts may reach as high as 2 to 3 inches where any cell-training occurs, and this is consistent with a consensus of 18Z HREF/12Z REFS model suites. The antecedent conditions are quite wet, and especially over areas of the Mogollon Rim and the high country of southwest CO near and adjacent to the San Juan Mountains. Given the additional rainfall expected this evening, there will likely be more potential for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7doVrWLjkwQa72VYniJNk6xk1yGikKd6Rti1oorXg66cVvPKz9cZGGsOU9oSXa0LDLGE= 6mPmcEvU8gOdRrz06ahPmiI$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...PUB...TWC... ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC... LAT...LON 38440769 38300643 37560577 35720564 34050625=20 33160789 32890989 32981093 33441197 34381233=20 35001172 35211039 35750938 36450879 37770835=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .