Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 12 2025 19:47:58

ACUS01 KWNS 121947
SWODY1
SPC AC 121946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of southern/central Arizona, with marginally severe hail and gusty
winds possible.

....20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed.
Latest GOES visible imagery and surface observations show an outflow
boundary - emanating from decaying convection over central AZ -
drifting southward into south-central AZ where temperatures continue
to warm into the 80s with MLCAPE increasing to around 1000 J/kg.
Although forcing for ascent across the region remains fairly
nebulous, additional thunderstorm development along this boundary
remains plausible through the evening hours. Regional VWPs continue
to sample 35-45 knot winds between 5-6 km AGL, which may support
some degree of storm organization/longevity and a localized severe
hail/wind threat.

...Moore.. 10/12/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025/

....Southern/Central Arizona...
The region will continue to be peripherally influenced by a lead
trough shifting east-northeastward from the northern/central Rockies
toward the northern Plains, and a moist environment with middle 60s
to lower 70s F surface dewpoints. Scattered semi-repetitive showers
and thunderstorms are ongoing across south-central Arizona at late
morning/midday including near the Phoenix Metro vicinity. This may
limit diurnal destabilization some especially with northward extent,
but the precipitation could abate some as forcing for ascent
modestly weakens this afternoon, before additional late-day
redevelopment/re-intensification occurs within a moist and weakly
capped/destabilizing air mass. Regardless, relatively strong
mid/high-level winds will support some sustained multicells, with
some hail/gusty winds possible with the strongest storms this
afternoon and evening.

$$

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