Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 12 2025 05:14:44

AWUS01 KWNH 120514
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-120912-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1183
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
113 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Areas affected...far west Texas, extreme southern New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120512Z - 120912Z

Summary...Conditional flash flood potential exists around the El
Paso, TX area for the next few hours.

Discussion...Deep tropical convection associated with the remnants
of Raymond continue to stream from northwestern Mexico into far
west Texas currently.  Recent radar/MRMS observations depict
training/repeating with a recent uptick in convective intensity in
a cluster about 35 miles southwest of El Paso.  Rain rates remain
modest, however (around 0.25 inch/hr), but an uptick in rates has
been noted southwest of El Paso also.  The cells are in an
abundantly moist environment with 1.3-1.6 inch PW values.=20
Additionally, 1000 J/kg MUCAPE was sustaining stronger updrafts
and likely resulting in the convective uptick noted in recent
radar trends.

These cells are likely to persist northeastward into the El Paso
area over the next 2-4 hours.  Rain rates may be marginal for
flash flooding, although urban impacts in/near El Paso appear to
be possible.  Rain rates may both 1) exceed 0.5 inch/hr and 2)
persist for longer than an hour, both supportive of excessive
rainfall potential.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4uTcT5x5bOUWNZ6xNC_M0PQQni-ylZF99KF4dcC-e-UpbGBmZ9ZnOAIgL_ENvhR_QDJb=
HyBxkQsydWHXrkGj-D_bCgY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32780684 32610532 31840485 30350475 31490627=20
            31730817 31380832 31570901 32220855=20

=3D =3D =3D
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