Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 12 2025 00:42:25

ACUS01 KWNS 120042
SWODY1
SPC AC 120041

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTER GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST...AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
the eastern Great Basin and Southwest. A brief tornado and
occasional strong to severe gusts could occur over the Outer Banks
of North Carolina late tonight and early Sunday morning.

....01z Update...

Strong progressive upper trough is advancing steadily across the
northern Intermountain region and Great Basin early this evening.
Strong midlevel height falls and high-level diffluent flow continue
to favor scattered convection along the frontal zone as it shifts
east this evening. 00z sounding from SLC exhibited relatively steep
lapse rates through 5km with MLCAPE around 700 J/kg. Nocturnal
cooling should weaken boundary-layer lapse rates over the next few
hours which should lead to overall weakening of ongoing activity.
Farther south across southeast AZ, fairly high PW values are noted
along the U.S. side of the international border with 1.66 PW
observed at TUS. Deep-layer flow is also modestly strong which will
continue to support at least isolated severe within an air mass
characterized by MLCAPE around 1100 J/kg. This activity should
spread toward southwest NM where cooler temperatures and weaker
buoyancy will lead to weaker updrafts.

Boundary layer moisture is gradually increasing along the Outer
Banks of NC early this evening where latest observational data
suggests lower 70s are noted. As moisture/instability advance inland
the prospect for deeper updrafts/lightning will increase, especially
after midnight. Some risk for severe gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado can be expected.

...Darrow.. 10/12/2025

$$

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