Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 10 2025 01:06:03

AWUS01 KWNH 100105
FFGMPD
FLZ000-100704-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1174
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
905 PM EDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Areas affected...eastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100104Z - 100704Z

Summary...A few hours of heavy rainfall are expected along the
east coast of Florida tonight.  Local rainfall totals of 2-5
inches can be expected where convection is most persistent.  Flash
flooding is possible in both urban areas and where coastal
flooding can hinder runoff processes through at least 07Z/3a EDT.

Discussion...Scattered, deep convection is persistent within a
strongly confluent low-level regime along the east coast of
Florida.  These storms have initially persisted over open Gulf
Stream waters, but recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a slight
uptick in isolated convection over land areas especially just
north of Melbourne.  The storms are in an environment
characterized by 2+ inch PW values and around 1000 J/kg SBCAPE,
supporting efficient rainfall processes.  Additionally, low-level
easterlies veering to westerly aloft was promoting slow storm
motions that - when combined with favorable thermodynamic
parameters - will ultimately support a few areas of 2 inch/hr rain
rates at times.

Both observations and models suggest that the ongoing pattern
supporting rainfall should evolve very slowly over the next 6
hours at least.  Spots of heavy rainfall (2 inch/hr rain rates)
should remain common on an isolated to scattered basis -
especially along coastal areas where updrafts will have access to
slightly greater instability located just offshore.  Areas of 2-5
inch rainfall totals are expected.

These rain rates will occur over urbanized areas along the I-95
corridor from near/north of Daytona southward to around Ft.
Pierce.  Isolated, urbanized flash flooding is possible through
07Z/3a EDT.  Additionally, with onshore flow promoting localized
coastal flooding and hindering runoff in some areas, flooding
could become exacerbated by heavier rainfall on a localized basis.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8XwLr0VmFqtMdKnadkE1jKfI_RSgw7DUVPW8r3c0R2Yn7aXQ7B_DWYDXrSHvpIgMitOs=
6x_EYw4DpCV2NdqsCZ-sJsY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   29938160 29578066 27977976 27108007 28248124=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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