Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 07 2025 15:01:47 AWUS01 KWNH 071501 FFGMPD WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-072000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1166 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1101 AM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025 Areas affected...Far Southern IND...Northern & Central KY...Southern OH...Far Western WV Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 071500Z - 072000Z SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rainfall with embedded weak convective elemented within a long training profile into confluent low to mid-level flow downstream of cyclone pose localized 2-3" totals over 3-6hrs suggesting scattered incidents of flash flooding remains through afternoon. DISCUSSION...14z surface analysis depicts an elongating SW to NE surface low across Southwest KY as the mid-level shortwave continues to advance into the lower Ohio Valley into increasingly confluent flow aloft. A new triple point-like feature near OWB appears to be helping to back the low to mid-level higher moisture flux flow enough to maintain some solid convergence to tap the remaining conditionally unstable air of 250-500 J/kg along and downstream in proximity to the stationary front which appears to have taken residence in the Ohio Valley, proper. Solid deep layer moisture through the confluence stream remains well above normal at 1.75-2.1" of total PWats though CIRA LPW denotes the elongation/shearing of the moisutre axis as the surface to 850 remains upstream near the low and slow advancing cold front, but 700-500mb slug has shifted toward Northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Still the oblique ascent across the effective boundary is further elongating the isentropic ascent that has moderate shield precip and weak convective entrainment, increasing further to the west.=20 The flux is enhancing showers to .25-.75"/hr and given the orientation into the confluence zone further strengthens training profile and axis of 2" may result prior to even the arrival of stronger flux/deeper convective cores capable of 1.25-1.5"/hr though average more close to 1" for an additional 1-2 hours. This should result in 2-3.5" totals with a low possibility of a localized 4" total across the area of concern through the afternoon.=20 The flashy, rapid rise concerns are low and likely very isolated=20 but prolonged moderate rainfall, FFG values in the 3-6hr range are still about 2-3" along the frontal zone/training axis. This still suggests exceedance remains possible with scattered incidents of flooding especially in very poor drainage areas, such as urban settings.=20=20 Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5zZYIDwQf5bA7j5eVlGmC3eBSDbPZDSRiwc1NMkbgb7XXALrWMDtbLRRSMTz9O2--0gn= N1-caWr24-YYI4nclUtk__4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX... ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 39578261 39348191 38818177 38358197 37888263=20 37568380 37178594 36918765 37568756 38218703=20 38748564 39258429 39468337=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .