Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 06 2025 18:31:21 AWUS01 KWNH 061828 FFGMPD ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1163 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 227 PM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...Mississippi...Coastal Alabama... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 061830Z - 070000Z SUMMARY...Reinvigoration of convective bands will have similar potential for back-building and short-term training resulting in 2-4" totals given 2-2.5"/hr rates. Localized flash flooding remains possible through the evening. DISCUSSION...GOES-E GeoColor Visible imagery shows well defined surface to mid-level circulation along the LA/AR border with broad warm advective regime along the eastern hemisphere across much of MS into SE LA. Surface analysis shows some weak reflection in pressures further south than the wind circulation along the border, but a defined frontal zone extend along the MS River into the Atchafalaya Swamps of south-central LA...east of it higher theta-E air with increasing temperature spreads into the 80s over Tds in the mid to upper 70s. Early morning south to north convective line exists along the eastern side of the warm sector before low to mid-level clouds have been keeping temps in near the Tds north of the warm front from GLH to north of JAN to E of HBG and south to Mobile Bay. Surface to boundary layer moisture pooling along the warm front intersects with SSW LLJ across SE LA into central MS where Total PWat values are well above average in the 2.25"+ range. The confluence of the conveyor belts has resulted in strong moisture flux convergence generally coincident or just north of the expanding instability wedge. MLCAPEs are increasing from 1000 to 2000 J/kg from the warm front southward to the Gulf; providing the strength for vertical development. Recent GOES-E Vis/IR loops along with regional RADAR mosaic denoted leading edge of old outflow and intersection of the warm front has seen increased convective vigor and vertical depth in the last hour or so. While winds are generally 20-25kts through depth, it is the strong confluence with height that present the stronger convergence to tap the unstable air. Moisture flux of the high moisture will result in increasing rain-rates of 2-2.5"/hr. Steering flow will allow for south to north training, though momentum and some weak cold pool generation should allow for some eastward propagation to limit overall duration. Spots of 2-4" are probable and may result in localized flash flooding concerns. Additionally, GOES-E WV suite denotes a weak inflection along the cold front near the Gulf coast lifting northeastward within the larger shortwave lifting north through the MS Valley, this is indicative of some increased low-level jet streak to support upstream back-building. In addition, while not in the core of the warm conveyor belt, convergence along the cold front toward the triple-point could see even slower, but shallower thunderstorms capable of intense rainfall as well. The potential of upstream development in proximity to the front could expose areas of lowered FFG from this morning's thunderstorm activity and reaggravate flooding concerns there as well. As such, have expanded the MPD area of concern to the cold front to encompass this lower confidence, wider scattered activity and flash flood potential. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5kqEn9ABgoaBy83TKamWfey1bpNGDWezyGFebiIOwJen41FITHNy3dd_b7IFD7cu0YYL= wKg-hUtcEvZN9uQo-AnY7Vw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MEG...MOB... ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC... LAT...LON 34698960 34158873 32378849 31398795 30508763=20 30178795 30268891 30088985 30109055 30369132=20 31569090 32719080 33569100 34289043=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .