Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 06 2025 13:38:26

AWUS01 KWNH 061338
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-061637-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1161
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
937 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast LA and southern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061337Z - 061637Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms are possible over the next few
hours roughly between Baton Rouge LA and Prentiss MS.  Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" and additional local totals are possible where
cell training occurs, which would be most problematic in recently
saturated and urban areas.

Discussion...A training band of convection remains active across
south-central MS at the present time, while another area of slowly
developing scattered convection near Baton Rouge aligning.=20
Precipitable water values are around 2.25" per GPS data.  ML CAPE
of 500-1000 J/kg persists to the southeast of a low- to mid-level
disturbance near southeast AR.  Effective bulk shear across the
region is 20 kts or so, which has fostered convective organization
at times.

The concern is that the scattered aligned convection in LA
continues to slowly build, consolidate, and train in the next few
hours, potentially advecting downstream into areas that receieved
5-10" of rain this morning per radar estimates.  The remaining
convective band is also a source of concern for another 2-3 hours.
 Where training occurs, hourly amounts to 2.5" with additional
local amounts to 4" would be possible, which would be most
problematic in urban areas and were soils have recently saturated.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-HlW0Z7_20mpjxmZ3pPVoB8ronlYjmCSXAac0erYyKyg3YLk3QST8fpprRAMQE2LJqJi=
m34tWFprAZ8Qzr9Tr17YJjA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   31938979 31228976 30489041 30149122 30169166=20
            30619135 31359058=20

=3D =3D =3D
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