Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 03 2025 19:51:29

ACUS01 KWNS 031951
SWODY1
SPC AC 031949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind gusts and small hail
will be possible from late this afternoon into tonight across parts
of the Great Basin and Intermountain West.

....20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track and only minor adjustments were made
with this update. In particular, the MRGL risk was extended slightly
westward into far northeastern NV, driven by 5-percent wind
probabilities. Despite limited moisture/buoyancy, strengthening
large-scale ascent in the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet
and steepening deep-layer lapse rates amid strong low/mid-level flow
could support a couple strong convectively enhanced wind gusts. See
the previous discussion below for more details.

...Weinman.. 10/03/2025

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025/

....Great Basin and Intermountain West...
A prominent Western states upper trough, centered over the Sierra at
midday, will continue to progress eastward toward/over the Great
Basin, while taking on an increasingly neutral tilt. Consequential
height falls, cooling aloft, and a strengthening of deep-layer winds
will occur in association. This will support increasing and at least
widely scattered thunderstorm development into the afternoon and
tonight as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen and modest
destabilization occurs. Even with limited  buoyancy, high-based
storms combined with moderate low/mid-level flow could still result
in a few strong thunderstorm-enhanced surface wind gusts, with the
relatively greatest chance for a few gusts this afternoon/early
evening across northern/east-central Utah. Persistent forcing for
ascent will result in thunderstorm development throughout the
evening and overnight amid strengthening mid-level flow and cooling
mid-level temperatures. Buoyancy will remain modest, but a few
instances of mostly sub-severe hail may also occur.

$$

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