Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 30 2025 05:36:57

ACUS01 KWNS 300536
SWODY1
SPC AC 300535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely today and tonight.

....Synopsis...
An expansive mid-level ridge will persist from the MS Valley into
the upper Great Lakes a pair of TCs and an upper low intensify off
the Atlantic Seaboard. As these storms are forecast to recurve, dry
offshore flow is expected in their wake over the entirety of the
eastern CONUS as surface high pressure intensifies and move south
out of eastern Canada. The cooler and drier surface conditions
should limit thunderstorm potential outside of coastal FL and the
southern Appalachians where shallow buoyant profiles remain.

A large upper low will gradually expand over the western third of
the CONUS through tonight. While southwesterly flow aloft is
forecast to increase, dry surface conditions are expected as remnant
moisture is scoured east. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible
over the Intermountain West and along a lee trough across the
central High Plains. The presence of only modest surface moisture
and poor lapse rates will limit diurnal destabilization across much
of the CONUS. While an isolated stronger storm remains  possible
over the northern Great Basin and High Plains, meager buoyancy and
modest overlap with stronger vertical shear will largely preclude
severe potential.

...Lyons/Moore.. 09/30/2025

$$

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