Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 30 2025 00:45:27

ACUS01 KWNS 300045
SWODY1
SPC AC 300043

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Synopsis...
Broad high pressure over the eastern CONUS will remain in place this
evening as an expansive cloud shield from TS Imelda overspreads the
Atlantic Coast. Over the West, weak ascent ahead of an upper trough
and cold front were supporting scattered weak thunderstorms over the
Great Basin and Rockies. Modest surface moisture favoring only weak
buoyancy (MLCAPEs less than 500 J/kg) will continue to limit
convective intensity over the western US despite enhanced
southwesterly flow aloft. While a stray severe gust cannot be ruled
out over portions of NV/ID or NM/CO, organized severe storms are not
expected through tonight as convection should gradually weaken.

....FL and the Southeast US Atlantic Coast...
Tropical Storm Imelda is forecast to continue to strengthen off the
FL Coast tonight, but will remain well offshore per latest NHC
forecast guidance. While a few thunderstorms will be possible in
distant outer rain bands from much of the FL Peninsula northward to
the GA/SC/NC Coast, the risk of strong to severe convection is
expected to remain low due to modest low-level shear/buoyancy.

...Lyons.. 09/30/2025

$$

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