Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 29 2025 07:00:23

ACUS03 KWNS 290700
SWODY3
SPC AC 290659

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Aside from low probabilities for thunderstorms across parts of the
Pacific Northwest, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible
across much of the rest of the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday
night.

....Discussion...
Beneath a confluent mid-level regime, in the wake of a short wave
trough digging southeast of the north Atlantic coast, models
indicate that the center of an expansive cool surface ridge will
shift southeastward through much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
by late Wednesday night.  The weaker southwestern flank of this
ridge likely will be maintained as far south and west as the
southern Great Plains and northern Gulf Basin, while the frontal
zone on the leading edge of the cooler air advances further offshore
of the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of east-northeastward
accelerating Humberto and Imelda.

Upstream, flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into North
America will continue to trend a bit more zonal through at least
this period.  An initially deep, occluded surface cyclone offshore
of the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast is forecast
to undergo rapid weakening near Vancouver Island.  However, as a
modest residual mid-level cold pool migrates inland, it may
contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak
thunderstorm activity west of the Cascades and farther inland across
parts of the northern intermountain region.

...Kerr.. 09/29/2025

$$

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