Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 29 2025 04:52:51

ACUS02 KWNS 290452
SWODY2
SPC AC 290450

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

....Discussion...
Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs
concerning the larger-scale pattern evolution through this period.
In the wake of a significant digging short wave trough, downstream
of amplified mid-level ridging slowly shifting eastward through the
Hudson Bay/Ontario/upper Great Lakes vicinity, models indicate that
expansive cool surface ridging will begin to build across much of
the eastern Canadian provinces through Great Lakes, Northeast and
Mid Atlantic by late Tuesday night, beneath a strongly confluent
regime.  Upstream, a significant mid-level trough and associated
deep lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are forecast to continue slowly
approaching southern British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coastal
areas, preceded by a couple of weak short wave perturbations
accompanied by modestly deepening surface troughing across the
Canadian Prairies into the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies.

In lower latitudes, within a belt of weaker flow to the south of a
blocking mid-level high lingering over the Midwest/middle
Mississippi Valley, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to dig
offshore of the Texas Gulf coast into the western Gulf Basin.  As a
downstream trough begins to slowly progress offshore of the south
Atlantic Seaboard, guidance generally indicates that Imelda will
slowly accelerate eastward, further away from the south Atlantic
Seaboard.

As this regime evolves, it is possible that residual low-level
moisture and/or cooling aloft may contribute to areas with
sufficient destabilization for scattered thunderstorm development,
from near the Pacific Northwest coast, across the Rockies and parts
of the Upper Midwest.  Orographic forcing, and lift associated with
a digging perturbation within cyclonic flow across the mountains of
western North Carolina and Georgia, may support additional
thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon.  However, it appears
that this will be mostly modest to weak in intensity, with generally
negligible risk for severe weather.

...Kerr.. 09/29/2025

$$

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