Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Sep 29 2025 00:57:03

ACUS01 KWNS 290056
SWODY1
SPC AC 290054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Sporadic hail and/or a severe wind gust remain possible over parts
of the Southwest this evening, though the threat is gradually
decreasing.

....NM into West TX...
Evening water vapor imagery showed a remnant upper low gradually
weakening over portions of the Desert Southwest to the west of an
expansive ridge across the central and eastern CONUS. Ascent from
the low overspreading a fairly moist air mass across eastern NM and
west TX has resulted in several rounds of scattered strong to
occasionally severe storms earlier this afternoon. Convection
remains ongoing as of 01z ahead of the upper low, but has started to
gradually wane as the broad and weakly unstable air mass has begun
overturning as evidence by the 00z EPZ RAOB. A deepening surface
cold pool from consolidating outflow over portions of southern NM
and West TX, and the loss of diurnal heating should continue the
cooling of the boundary layer and weakening instability trend
through the remainder of this evening.

Lingering surface-based buoyancy of ~500 J/kg on a localized basis
may continue to support an occasional stronger storm through the
early evening given continued 35-45 kt of effective shear. Some
sporadic hail and/or an occasional severe gust cannot be ruled out
with any stronger cores able to persist. However, this appears
increasingly unlikely as upper-level ascent associated with the
upper low is forecast to weaken and the cooling of the boundary
layer continues tonight.

...Lyons.. 09/29/2025

$$

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