Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Sep 28 2025 17:46:02 AWUS01 KWNH 281745 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-282345- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1151 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 145 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Areas affected...Central and Southern NM...Southwest TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 281745Z - 282345Z SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected going through the afternoon and evening hours. Heavy rainfall rates are likely to result in scattered areas of flash flooding which may impact sensitive burn scar and dry wash locations. DISCUSSION...Midday GOES-E Visible and Day Cloud Phase RGB satellite imagery shows an increasingly agitated CU/TCU field over southern NM and southwest TX as stronger diurnal heating and an increase in boundary layer instability ensues. MLCAPE values have risen to 500 to 1000 K/kg across these areas, and additional destabilization is expected over the next few hours which will help set the stage for renewed areas of convective initiation. Already there has been a corridor of showers and thunderstorms that progressed through areas of southern NM in response to a lead shortwave impulse which is advancing quickly off to the northeast. However, in its wake, the flow aloft remains quite diffluent given the upstream approach of the broader upper trough over the Southwest U.S. The approach of these height falls along with a belt of stronger mid-level southwest flow and resulting shear should favor the development and expansion of relatively organized convective cells going through the afternoon hours. Effective bulk shear values are on the order of 30 to 40 kts which combined with MLCAPE values eventually reaching 1500+ J/kg should yield scattered multicell convection. The PW anomalies across the region are somewhat moist with values of 1.5+ standard deviations above normal. This will tend top support heavier rainfall rates with these more organized convective cells that could reach 1 to 2 inches/hour. The more orographically favored higher terrain, including the Sacramento Mountains in south-central NM and the Davis Mountains of southwest TX are expected to be the locations that generally see the heaviest rainfall potential going through this evening. Some spotty totals across these areas may reach 2 to 4+ inches which is supported by some of the 12Z hires model guidance. Adjacent areas farther west across central to southwest NM will also see at least locally heavy totals from potentially more discrete pockets of convection away the terrain. Scattered areas of flash flooding will become likely in time due to the development and expansion of convection with these higher rainfall rates. The more sensitive burn scar locations (including the Blue 2, South Fork, Salt and McBride burn scar complex) and normally dry washes will be at greatest risk for impacts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7xelRpfMJtMEPIBSB9JA6mk_6F9bBX5JDjogUrwu3R4eyi1r2sWxZMLiBMZtdlHlkc3a= NgD4vO8qDuLUrsdVn89zbr0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...TWC... ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC... LAT...LON 35450645 35030492 34370407 33340346 31650325=20 30600342 29960395 29980476 31020587 31480683=20 31420774 31250838 31370885 32320907 34370859=20 35260777=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .