Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 28 2025 13:45:29

AWUS01 KWNH 281345
FFGMPD
NMZ000-281700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1149
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
944 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Areas affected...southern/central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281344Z - 281700Z

Summary...Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible this
morning - especially in sensitive areas/downstream of burn scars.

Discussion...Scattered convection has persisted across much of the
discussion area this morning.  Recent radar/satellite shows
additional shower/thunderstorm activity developing across southern
New Mexico and drifting northeastward.  The storms are in a
favorable pattern for development owing to difluence aloft and an
upper trough upstream over Arizona.  Additionally, a pool of
moisture over the area (1+ inch PW) will continue to support
heavier rainfall especially where localized backbuilding can
materialize. Most of the convection this morning has exhibited <1
inch/hr rain rates, though localized backbuilding and prolonging
of heavy rain rates cannot be ruled out in this regime.=20
Furthermore, the onset of insolation/surface warming should
readily increase SBCAPE values beyond 1000 J/kg this morning,
which may result in an uptick in convective coverage through
17Z/11a MDT.

Though ongoing convective activity is relatively isolated, storms
were unfortunately moving toward sensitive ground conditions near
Ruidoso, NM.  These trends are expected to continue this morning,
prompting an isolated flash flood risk in the most sensitive
locales.  Rain rates may peak at around 1 inch/hr - especially as
convection increases in coverage and local mergers/backbuilding
become more common.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-pLeEWgvdRXR3lvxrf_RZ1C0BAwtZAX1gwuGl5Eh7pOXEvaUQdX8J8ZKRrj4DBjNBgeJ=
DfvW1H85xU3ooSrFdY9BViA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34440492 33380431 32260459 31850764 32140802=20
            33180738 34220632=20

=3D =3D =3D
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