Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 28 2025 05:21:14

ACUS01 KWNS 280521
SWODY1
SPC AC 280519

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong, to locally severe thunderstorms are expected across
the southern half of New Mexico and far West Texas. Win gusts and
hail are the primary concern.

....NM/Far West TX...

Lower CO River Valley upper low is forecast to gradually weaken and
lift northeast toward the Four Corners region by the end of the
period. This evolution will encourage a bit stronger midlevel flow
to translate across northern Mexico into southern NM later today,
coincident with modest-strong boundary layer
heating/destabilization. While midlevel height falls will prove
negligible to weakly rising, the approaching upper trough is
expected to aid a corridor of scattered robust convection across
northern Mexico-far west TX-southern/central NM. Forecast soundings
suggest convective temperatures will be breached fairly early,
possibly by 20z. At that time profiles exhibit modest-strong 0-6km
bulk shear, with some veering with height. Scattered thunderstorms
should easily develop by mid afternoon and the large-scale
environment favors some updraft organization. Primary concerns will
be gusty winds and hail. Nocturnal cooling, along with convective
overturning, should result in weaker updrafts by mid evening.

...Darrow/Moore.. 09/28/2025

$$

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