Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Sep 28 2025 00:55:14

ACUS01 KWNS 280055
SWODY1
SPC AC 280053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

....01z Update...

Nocturnal cooling has weakened low-level lapse rates across most of
the CONUS east of the Rockies early this evening. 00z soundings from
coastal Middle Atlantic support this, but PW values remain
seasonally high with several hundred J/kg MLCAPE observed at MHX.
The most robust updrafts may continue to generate lightning at
times, but organized severe is not anticipated.

Farther west, modest southwesterly midlevel flow persists across
northern Mexico into eastern AZ ahead of lower CO River Valley low.
TUS sounding exhibited around 500 J/kg MLCAPE with steep lapse rates
through 4km. Occasional lightning will continue to be observed
across much of the southwestern U.S. ahead of this upper trough but
severe is not anticipated.

...Darrow.. 09/28/2025

$$

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