Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 27 2025 21:12:44

AWUS01 KWNH 272112
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-280111-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1148
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia, far northeastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272111Z - 280111Z

Summary...Potentially significant urban flood potential exists
around Norfolk/Virginia Beach through 00Z/8p EDT.

Discussion...Over the past hour or so, progressive convection has
tended to stall and backbuild along an axis extending from near
Norfolk southwestward to near Windsor, NC.  The slowed eastward
progression of this linear complex has enabled focused training
and a peak of rain rates into the 1-1.75 inch/hr range.  These
rates aren't surprising given the training and pre-convective
airmass characterized by 2.1 inch PW and ~2000 J/kg SBCAPE.

Unfortunately, these rates will spread northeastward into
populated areas of southeastern Virginia (notably Norfolk and
Virginia Beach).  A quick 2-4 inches of rainfall could cause
significant issues with urban runoff in this scenario.  Low-lying
areas may also experiencing excessive runoff.

The eastward progression of this band will ultimately rely on
local convective influences (i.e., upscale growth, merging cold
pools, and propagation).  It should take at least 2-3 hours for
ongoing convection to clear the region.  Again, flash flooding
(locally significant) is likely through 8p EDT.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-uGgh1CJzogzlplRWtrAMWyBFh9jreOdQGicBGA8Fd9puaOYT_Zjk1K3kGwZwAetb5Q6=
cIDpGsi5FmcZ4egMQjWqyFs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37527558 36777576 36397565 35947601 35887700=20
            36587680 37147645 37497609=20

=3D =3D =3D
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