Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Sep 27 2025 15:29:11

AWUS01 KWNH 271529
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-272127-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1145
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1128 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia, far northern North
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271527Z - 272127Z

Summary...Mesoscale evolution of convective cells with
supercellular characteristics should continue to prompt areas of
2-3 inch/hr rain rates.  Any localized backbuilding or training
could promote locally significant flash flooding - especially in
urbanized and sensitive locales.

Discussion...A couple of supercellular structures were noted near
Emporia, VA and Roanoke Rapids, NC over the past hour.  Because of
the rotational and supercellular character of these cells, slower
and rightward-moving storm motions have enabled spots of 2-3.5
inch/hr rain rates to develop.  These cells were migrating
northeastward parallel to a subtle confluence/baroclinic zone
extending from Emporia to KW75/Saluda, VA.  Localized vorticity
ingest processes were likely promoting the supercellular
development and maximizing rain rates locally.

Southwesterly steering flow aloft should allow for convection to
continue drifting northeastward and interacting favorably with the
aforementioned confluence zone.  This, along with 2 inch PW and
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE on the warm side of the confluence should
continue to support local 2-3.5 inch/hr rain rates through the
Wakefield and Williamsburg areas.  Furthermore, any backbuilding
along the confluence axis could prolong rain rates and lead to a
locally significant flash flood threat - especially in any urban
or flash flood-prone areas.  The mesoscale details supporting this
risk should persist for at least a few hours, and perhaps through
21Z/5p EDT.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9XffrvnDjU2arCQ_v_74REcog2S76BiHViToFBlEApskYCUn4wypKkrBUgoFVDsbFqct=
8oZCu02aOdVxzTPoYV3TEDM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37857609 37137581 36367669 36007826 36647829=20
            37227789 37807691=20

=3D =3D =3D
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