Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 26 2025 16:47:04

ACUS02 KWNS 261647
SWODY2
SPC AC 261645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

....Synopsis...

An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will shift east/northeast
through the period. Enhanced mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will
overspread eastern portions of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
ahead of a surface cold front. While a very moist airmass will be in
place (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints), ongoing showers and
thunderstorms Saturday morning and persistent cloudiness will limit
daytime heating. As a result, only weak destabilization is expected
amid weak lapse rates. While some locally gusty winds will be
possible, overall severe potential is expected to be low.

Across the western U.S., a closed upper low will persist over the
Southwest/southern CA vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will
maintain a modestly moist airmass as weak destabilization is
forecast (generally less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Stronger
destabilization will be tempered by cloudiness and poor midlevel
lapse rates. Weak vertical shear is also forecast. Nevertheless,
where stronger heating occurs, steepened low-level lapse rates could
support locally gusty winds with stronger thunderstorms. Small,
sub-severe hail also could occur with stronger storms given
temperatures at or below -10 C near/above 500 mb. Overall, severe
potential is expected to remain low.

...Leitman.. 09/26/2025

$$

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