Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Sep 26 2025 16:22:34 ACUS01 KWNS 261622 SWODY1 SPC AC 261621 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NM... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms with hail and strong to marginally severe gusts are possible today across parts of southern and central Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico. ....Southwest... A well-defined upper low continues to progress slowly eastward across southern CA. Given its displacement well south of the primary westerlies along the US/Canada border, only limited eastward progression of this low is anticipated, with some potential it stalls in over the Lower CO River Valley vicinity. Ample moisture remains in place ahead of this upper low, and the resulting combination of persistent large-scale ascent associated with the low and this moisture will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms across much of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. Buoyancy will be limited throughout much of this region, tempering the overall updraft strength and storm severity. The only exception is from central into southeast AZ and far southwest NM where greater low-level moisture exists south of a warm front that extends northwestward across the region to a surface low over the Lower CO Valley. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated in this vicinity of this front this afternoon, where the greater low-level moisture (i.e. low 60s dewpoints) will contribute to afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Moderate low to mid-level southwesterlies will help increase deep-layer shear values, particularly along the warm front where surface southeasterlies are possible. These environmental conditions support the potential for rotating storms capable of producing large hail. Steep low-level lapse rates throughout the warm sector suggest the potential for damaging gusts exists as well. A low-probability tornado threat may materialize along the warm front, with the magnitude of the threat dependent on the strength of the surface southeasterlies. ....Elsewhere... Broad upper troughing extending from the Northeast through the Lower MS Valley will contribute to scattered thunderstorms across much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Limited buoyancy should temper the overall storm intensity, although a strong storm or two is possible within the moist environment over the Carolinas. A few thunderstorms are also possible across northern MN as a cold front moves through the region overnight. ...Mosier/Thornton.. 09/26/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .