Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 26 2025 04:35:33

ACUS02 KWNS 260435
SWODY2
SPC AC 260434

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

....Discussion...
An initially strong, zonal jet across the northern mid-latitude
Pacific is undergoing amplification, and this appears likely to
include consolidating, deepening large-scale mid/upper troughing
across the eastern Pacific into British Columbia/Pacific Northwest
coast by the end of the period.  Downstream, within a much weaker
branch of westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical
latitudes, a mid-level low may slowly begin to pivot east/northeast
of the lower Colorado Valley, while a downstream high rebuilds to
the east/northeast of the mid/lower Missouri Valley.  The evolution
of weak mid-level troughing across the Southeast remains more
unclear, but it does appear that a mid/upper high centered near
Bermuda will become more prominent, to the north and northeast of a
pair of developing tropical cyclones, including one which may
continue slowly migrating north-northwestward across the Bahamas
vicinity Saturday through Saturday night.

Beneath the mid-level troughing across the Southwest and southern
Rockies, and across the Southeast (which may also include a residual
cyclonic circulation near the southern Appalachians), models
continue to indicate only modest to weak diurnal destabilization
Saturday.  While this will probably be sufficient to contribute to
scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon into evening,
with deep-layer mean flow and shear remaining generally weak, the
risk for severe thunderstorms still appears negligible.

...Kerr.. 09/26/2025

$$

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