Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Sep 26 2025 00:50:59

ACUS01 KWNS 260050
SWODY1
SPC AC 260049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of
the eastern U.S., and in the Desert Southwest. A marginally severe
wind gust and/or hail will be possible this evening in parts of
Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. A locally strong wind gust
will also be possible in parts of southern New England.

....Arizona/Far Southwest New Mexico...
At mid-levels early this evening, the latest water vapor imagery
shows a low over central California, with a ridge located over
eastern Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the ridge
from the Mogollon Rim southwestward into far southwest New Mexico.
This convection is located along the eastern edge of a
north-northwest-to-south-southeast corridor of moderate instability,
where the RAP has MUCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This value
of instability is supported by the 00Z Tucson sounding which also
has 0-6 km shear near 30 knots and a 0-3 km lapse rate of 8.5 C/km.
This could be enough for a marginally severe wind gust with cells
that persist along and near the instability axis this evening. Hail
will also be possible.

Elsewhere, a strong wind gust will be possible with a line of storms
in southwest New England. Any severe potential there is expected to
decrease over the next hour as instability continues to weaken.

...Broyles.. 09/26/2025

$$

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