Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 25 2025 19:42:09

AWUS01 KWNH 251942
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-260130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1137
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Areas affected...central to southeastern AZ into southwestern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251939Z - 260130Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to result in a few
areas of flash flooding from central and southeastern AZ into
southwestern NM through early evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
will be likely within the stronger cores.

Discussion...Visible satellite and area radar imagery showed the
rapid development of thunderstorms over north-central to
southeastern AZ over the past hour. The storms overlapped within
an anomalous low to mid-level moisture axis seen on LPW imagery,
located east of a dry tongue which existed over southern CA into
southern NV. Favorable surface heating beneath mostly clear skies
and the anomalous PW axis (+1 to +2 standardized anomalies) have
led to 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE via 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data (~1100
J/kg via 18Z TUS sounding) over a large portion of the MPD area.

Steering flow varied across the region but was oriented from the
SSW to W and was stronger across northern regions compared to
locations closer to the Mexican border. Mid-level height falls and
upper level left-exit region jet max divergence, at the nose of a
zonally oriented jet streak moving into northern Baja California,
should aid in lift across the region later this afternoon. The
environment will support scattered thunderstorms increasing
through the evening with brief training and outflow interactions
as storm coverage increases. 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour (or
less) should be found within the stronger thunderstorm cores that
develop and is expected to result in at least isolated flash
flooding into the early evening.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6oje_8QJMjjKuArnunfaQn1FApIpa7M3iTh5gDWrUxTJgXgoaqCgwwYgFIHmazke7Q4g=
mTqL1XAh1CmatsvDW4Cto_Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   35441210 35141068 34260919 33150779 32580722=20
            31660702 31120790 31090952 31261079 31661115=20
            32671115 33991164 35131245=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.