Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2129
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 25 2025 19:25:29

ACUS11 KWNS 251925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251925=20
AZZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Areas affected...Portions of southern/central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251925Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible this
afternoon. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level low is moving slowly east-southeastward
in central California. A weak surface low in the lower Colorado
Valley is present along with a warm front across central into
southeast Arizona. Strong heating of a moist (mid/upper 50s F
dewpoints) airmass has promoted widely scattered thunderstorm
development late this morning into early afternoon. Some mid-level
subsidence is noted on the 18Z TUS sounding; however, forcing for
ascent should increase steadily through the afternoon/evening as the
upper low approaches.

With continued heating along the surface boundary and the Mogollon
Rim, scattered to numerous storms will develop. Shear is not
particularly strong (around 20-25 kts 0-6 km per area VAD data), but
will marginally increase later today. The strongest storms will be
capable of isolated large hail. Severe gusts will also be possible
given the well-mixed boundary layer.

...Wendt/Mosier.. 09/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7kuQzokhcCb7RuB985_1hhMxY5zydNHgGZ55W8I9zr2fYTZmIWCDIlCUzNZ16AFCqxRRMCprt=
Pv_goqxQM1mBXRSK90$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   32971140 33451182 34541256 35031265 35331218 35031090
            34491008 33850966 32300957 31510974 31250991 31261088
            32971140=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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