Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2128
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 25 2025 19:23:28

ACUS11 KWNS 251923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251922=20
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-252115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern MD...eastern PA...far southern
NY...NJ...and northern DE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 251922Z - 252115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong wind gusts are possible with thunderstorms
this afternoon to early evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in intensity
this afternoon along an eastward-advancing cold front oriented from
central NY/PA  into western MD. Cloud cover has persisted most of
the day, but some cloud breaks have allowed temperatures to warm
into the mid-70s to near 80 F amid a moist boundary layer. Limited
heating and poor lapse rates will preclude stronger destabilization.
Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles are present, per regional VWP
data, but boundary-parallel flow will most favor line segments. Weak
instability (up to 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) could support sporadic
strong gusts, especially across southeast PA and vicinity where
stronger heating has occurred. Overall severe potential is expected
to remain low, but a stronger storm or two will be possible. A watch
is not expected at this time.

...Leitman/Mosier.. 09/25/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_l3UkunMrBK68jBc_cP9_UbkNjpX8nEUnB1F5q01ZsaDjrzXktKB-D3RfOtWfib3ToPWsvksf=
yXFxsEqClzvNYimOKw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   39637781 40357747 41097635 41477558 41687509 41717469
            41557442 41277418 40407432 39837470 39427588 39347716
            39637781=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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