Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Sep 25 2025 17:05:59

ACUS02 KWNS 251705
SWODY2
SPC AC 251704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible across portions of
southern Arizona and far southwest New Mexico on Friday.

....Synopsis...
The primary storm track will remain over Canada on Friday, with
generally weak flow aloft over most of the CONUS. However, two
slow-moving upper-level features will provide a focus for
thunderstorm development. One is an upper low that will be centered
over the Southwest, and the other is a weaker upper low/open-wave
trough over the Southeast.

....AZ...
An upper low will slowly deepen over southern CA, with cooling aloft
spreading into AZ. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist over AZ,
which will require little heating to remove convective inhibition.
In addition, a substantial moist plume will exist over  southern AZ,
curling northwestward toward southern NV.

It appears that thunderstorms will form relatively early in the day
along the Rim where weak upslope flow will exist, with additional
convection developing over south-central and southeastern AZ.
Although shear will not be strong, veering winds with height and
robust CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg may support brief
hail in the strongest cells. As storms increase in coverage,
aggregate outflow may result in locally damaging gusts as well.

....Southeast...
A weak surface trough will develop over the Carolinas into southeast
GA as daytime heating steepens low-level lapse rates. In the
midlevels, little if any cooling aloft is expected given the
meridional winds aloft, but the moist air mass should result in
about 1500 J/kg MUCAPE by afternoon. Given weak shear and poor lapse
rates aloft, severe weather appears unlikely, but a few strong gusts
may occur.

...Jewell.. 09/25/2025

$$

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