Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Sep 24 2025 19:59:56 ACUS01 KWNS 241959 SWODY1 SPC AC 241958 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST TX NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible from parts of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to south Texas. ....Southern TX...Lower MS Valley into TN/Lower OH Valleys... Widely scattered thunderstorms persist this afternoon from parts of southern and eastern TX across the lower MS Valley and toward the TN Valley. An earlier complex of storms resulted in wind damage over northwest LA, but has since weakened as it moved into southeast AR. Instability is currently maximized near and south of a front from south-central TX into LA and central MS where MLCAPE has risen into the 2000-2500 J/kg range. Modest midlevel westerlies extend south into AR/LA/MS, supporting faster storm motions. While deep-layer shear is only 25-30 kt, the stronger mean wind speeds may support stronger outflows with a few damaging gusts through the afternoon. Farther north into western TN and KY, pockets of heating are noted on visible imagery, and cells are beginning to form. While stronger high level winds are noted, overall midlevel wind speeds remain marginal. Given less instability with MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg, cells may not be particularly severe, but still may support locally strong gusts. To the south, storms are likely to increase along the TX Coast late this afternoon as the cold front continues south into the instability axis, with localized strong winds as storms spread south/east along with the boundary. ...Jewell.. 09/24/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/ ....Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to South Texas... Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the TX Hill Country northeastward into the Mid-South. Thunderstorms from northeast TX southwestward are largely behind an outflow-augmented cold front that extends from south of JCT northeastward to a weak low over the TXK vicinity. The undercutting character of this front will likely continue throughout the morning, but modest heating of the warm and moist airmass downstream from south-central TX into northern/central LA and central MS will result in moderate buoyancy. This should result in a trend toward a more surface-based storm character this afternoon. Much of this region will be displaced south of the stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend throughout the base of the shortwave trough moving across OK. This displacement should limit the overlap between the stronger buoyancy to the south and the stronger shear to north, resulting in a largely multicellular storm mode. This should temper updraft duration and keep the overall severe potential isolated. There will be slightly better overlap between the buoyancy and shear from northeast LA into central MS, with this flow oriented a bit more orthogonal to the boundary as well. This could lead to more storm organization and the development of more coherent linear structures capable of isolated damaging gusts. Even so, lapse rates will remain poor and the overall intensity of these storms is forecast to be modest. Areas along the front from southern AR northward may struggle to destabilize this afternoon, with only weak instability forecast by most guidance. Even so, stronger large-scale forcing for ascent is anticipated across this region as the shortwave trough currently over OK continues eastward and trends towards a less positive, more neutral tilt. This large-scale ascent will augment lift along the front and near the surface low to support thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy should temper updraft strength, but increasing mid-level flow attendant to the approaching shortwave may foster occasional updraft organization. Damaging wind gusts are possible if stronger convection can be sustained, but a largely multicellular storm mode should mitigate the overall severe potential. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .