Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Sep 24 2025 05:53:18 ACUS02 KWNS 240552 SWODY2 SPC AC 240551 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND... ....SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ....Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will weaken as it moves slowly east on Thursday. Ahead of this trough, a broad 35 to 45 knot mid-level jet will extend from the Southeast to New England and the Northeast. A surface low will deepen slightly as it moves through the eastern Great Lakes. ....Mid-Atlantic to New England... Extensive thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the central Appalachians into the eastern Great Lakes. This will result in widespread cloudcover and minimal surface heating across the warm sector on Thursday. However, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints and gradually cooling temperatures aloft will result in some instability. Around 40 knots of effective shear and cyclonically curved hodographs may support some storm organization, but overall, expect the weak instability to limit the overall severe weather threat. ....Southeast... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front across the Southeast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low 80s. Despite the favorable instability, weak lapse rates (<6 C/km) and only modest shear (25 to 30 knots) will limit storm intensity. Stronger updrafts amid 2+ inch PWAT values will support the potential for some water loaded downdrafts Thursday afternoon/evening. ....Carolinas into Virginia... Slightly greater severe weather chances may be present across the Carolinas into Virginia Thursday afternoon where moderate instability and moderate shear may overlap. Lapse rates will still remain quite weak, but moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may result in a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Bentley.. 09/24/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .