Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 24 2025 05:35:13

ACUS01 KWNS 240533
SWODY1
SPC AC 240531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms may generate some damaging wind gusts from
the Tennessee Valley to southern Texas.

....TN Valley to South TX...

Weak midlevel height falls are forecast across the OH Valley,
southwest into TX during the latter half of the period as upper
troughing establishes itself along this corridor. Surface response
to this feature is not expected to be particularly sharp with a weak
surface front forecast to extend from southern OH-AR-south central
TX by 18z. This cold front should advance slowly east during the
overnight hours as stronger 500mb flow rotates into the downstream
side of the upper trough.

Current thinking is surface heating will prove instrumental in
destabilization leading to convective development later today. Weak
surface boundary should help focus this activity, especially across
portions of south TX where latest model guidance suggests the
strongest heating will be noted. As temperatures warm into the lower
90s, 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across this portion of the MRGL
risk. Downstream, forecast soundings exhibit marginal lapse rates
across much of the TN/OH Valley region leading to poor buoyancy
within a modestly sheared environment. While some large-scale
forcing will encourage the potential for convective organization,
modest instability and weak lapse rates across much of the region do
not seem particularly favorable for more than isolated damaging
winds with the most robust updrafts.

...Darrow/Halbert.. 09/24/2025

$$

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