Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 24 2025 01:50:20

AWUS01 KWNH 240147
FFGMPD
KSZ000-240730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1127
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
947 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas affected...western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240145Z - 240730Z

SUMMARY...Brief training/repeating/backbuilding of showers and
thunderstorms may result in a localized flash flood threat over
portions of western KS over the next several hours. Hourly
rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES East water vapor showed a closed low over
eastern CO/western KS embedded within the base of a sharply
positively tilted longwave trough that extended into the Great
Lakes and eastern Canada. Radar imagery and gauge reports showed
moderate to locally heavy rainfall occurring to the north and east
of a 700-500 mb low along the northern CO/KS border, including a
north-south oriented tail of rain extending toward the south over
western KS. This axis aligned within a low level confluent flow
regime and weak instability (500-1000 J/kg) axis. Mean westerly
winds were found in the deeper layer flow, supporting individual
cell motions toward the east, but the pattern will favor
regeneration of cells within the low level convergence axis over
the next few hours. In addition, left-exit region divergence is
present over the region, tied to a 70-90 kt jet max located from
northern NM into the southern High Plains, which should aid in
vertical ascent over western KS.

The environment will be supportive of 1 to 2 inch hourly totals
due to the potential for brief training/repeating/backbuilding of
cells (slow net movement) but modest moisture (standardized PW
anomalies of +1 to +2) and only weak instability should preclude
higher rainfall rates. Portions of western KS have received well
above average rainfall over the past week (400 to 600+ percent of
normal) with above average soil moisture values leading to a
potentially increased threat flash flood on a localized basis
given low flash flood guidance values of less than 2 inches in 3
hours for portions of the region. The flash flood threat is
expected to slowly translate south as the mid-level trough axis
and low level forcing shift south over the next 6 hours as
forecast by the RAP.

Otto

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6pIWIJ7BEUMvmUTl6T2nKXh1HPDRkRwTOgoD0ao4ZUMFltBgTntVzK7pQKyLQaJU0Iz0=
DdzqJmYp7-_46ubc7euIQ94$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39870121 39830088 39610053 38940006 37539979=20
            37140000 37080064 37130099 37320120 37680143=20
            38300170 39040181 39500179 39690173 39820159=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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