Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Sep 24 2025 00:53:48

ACUS01 KWNS 240053
SWODY1
SPC AC 240052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...INTO ARKANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across
much of Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern parts of Texas.
Hail and wind are the primary concerns, though some tornado threat
does persist.

....01z Update...

A corridor of strong-severe thunderstorms has developed ahead of a
progressive short-wave trough early this evening. Latest water-vapor
imagery depicts a low-amplitude short wave advancing across western
MO-northwest AR-southeast OK. This feature will continue to
encourage deep convection downstream as a decent amount of buoyancy
currently resides across much of the Arklatex region. 00z soundings
support this with roughly 1800 J/kg MLCAPE at LZK, 2200 J/kg at SHV,
and 2000 J/kg at FWD. However, each of these profiles only display
modest 0-6km shear with roughly 25-35kt observed. As a result, storm
mode is somewhat complicated with multiple storm mergers and
clustering, rather than discrete supercells. Will maintain a SLGT
risk along a corridor from northeast TX/southeast OK into AR to
account for the greatest risk for organized clusters, line segments,
and a few supercells.

...Darrow.. 09/24/2025

$$

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