Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Sep 23 2025 23:46:07 AWUS01 KWNH 232346 FFGMPD TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-240415- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1126 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 745 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Areas affected...eastern OK into AR and the MS Valley Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 232343Z - 240415Z Summary...Training cells will continue areas of flash flooding from portions of eastern OK into and across AR to the MS Valley into the early overnight. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches and additional localized totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected. Discussion...2330Z area radar imagery across the Ozarks into southeastern OK showed a line of thunderstorms extending ahead of a cold front in eastern OK, and just north of an outflow-enhanced quasi-stationary front which extended west to east through north-central AR. Areas of training just south of the Boston Mountains have been associated with gauge reports of 0.75 to 1.00 inches of rain in 15 minutes and 2+ inches in an hour with ongoing areas of flash flooding from eastern OK into northwestern AR. Water vapor imagery showed the leading edge of a shortwave trough moving east from MO into eastern OK with diffluent flow aloft just downstream across southern MO and AR. Additional cells, though isolated, were noted across the 4-state region (MOKSAROK) in conjunction with the shortwave, with portions of southwestern MO and northwestern AR having received 72 hour rainfall totals of 2 to 8+ inches (per MRMS estimates). While these cells are moving into an environment largely worked over, relatively steep lapse rates could support an isolated core with 1+ inches of rain. Meanwhile, 850 mb winds ahead of the slow moving cold front were 15-25 kt from the SW, overrunning the outflow/stationary front across AR with west to east storm motions supporting training. SPC mesoanalysis data from 23Z indicated plenty of instability with 2000-3000 MLCAPE across eastern OK into western AR along with PWATs near 2 inches, supportive of high rain rates with this environment continuing through at least 04Z with minimal CIN. As the mid-level shortwave continues to advance east, the surface response will support a slow eastward push to the surface cold front with cell motions generally toward the east but with potential for upstream development and continued training potential. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected in a few location along with isolated 3 to 5 inch additional rainfall maxima through 04Z. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7lVsWVr0RTiCk-IP4eBt-5wdkDiuGDLA77gMOcfChsNeuepdQzAt3nxeyy7Q2neW3Bil= EfrnvvHpJLxy-wxx2B60Pdg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SGF...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 36649429 36569361 35999249 35989145 35638979=20 34868983 34629068 34299182 33959388 34049490=20 34309522 34699543 35189541 35769518 36229468=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .