Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 23 2025 19:31:47

ACUS03 KWNS 231931
SWODY3
SPC AC 231930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest
New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms.

....Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes
into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday
morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes.
Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH
Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt.

At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with
a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and
trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a
moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place,
supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period.

....Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast...
Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse
rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order
of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the
overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean
winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong
to locally damaging gusts.

To the north, while elevated instability will support general
thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe
potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will
remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as
far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit
more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35
kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates
aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells
will be possible.

...Jewell.. 09/23/2025

$$

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