Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 23 2025 17:44:00

AWUS01 KWNH 231743
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-232342-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1125
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas affected...southwestern Missouri, western Arkansas, eastern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 231742Z - 232342Z

Summary...Convective redevelopment is expected over the course of
the afternoon, with local areas of potentially significant flash
flooding expected.

Discussion...Strong convection continues in a relatively focused
band extending from just northeast of Fayetteville through Branson
currently.  This band of convection is tied to a lead mid-level
wave over Missouri that should continue to lift slowly
northeastward and result in subtle subsidence across the
discussion area for at least an hour or two.  These trends, along
with slackening low-level flow, suggest that a brief reprieve from
widespread flash flooding (outside of the aforementioned band) in
the short term.

Upstream, mid-level convection was already being agitated in part
due to an approaching mid-level wave evident in satellite imagery
across central Kansas/northern Oklahoma.  Additionally, earlier
convection has left behind an outflow boundary across northeastern
Oklahoma and vicinity that connects to a surface low over
north-central Oklahoma.  Each of these features (low-level
convergence, mid-level ascent) should result in a redevelopment of
deep convection over the course of the afternoon - though it may
take some time for deeper convection to materialize.  The airmass
south of the outflow remains abundantly moist and unstable (2 inch
PW values, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE).  As convection redevelops,
localized training should result in 2+ inch/hr rain rates that
could result in significant flash flooding - especially if the
rainfall occurs in 1) areas that received 2-4 inch rain amounts
earlier today (southwestern Missouri, far northwestern Arkansas),
and 2) across portions of the Arkansas River Valley that have
received 2-8 inches of rain over the past 48 hours.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7rI1I6QlvWvbXX1rE5i0akfkIrAZYFQzvaJwiAevoq_O2ATKzQ99ggbhtq1B15DBKfRB=
9ZYXNadGAfS70RMA7a_sIu4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37969309 37239185 35349188 34269259 34149522=20
            34919639 36099646 36809616 37599486=20

=3D =3D =3D
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