Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Sep 23 2025 17:32:47 ACUS02 KWNS 231732 SWODY2 SPC AC 231730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are expected from southern Ohio and far southwest Pennsylvania into southern Texas on Wednesday. ....Synopsis... An upper low will remain nearly stationary over Lower MI, with the upper trough extending southwestward toward the southern Plains during the day, and sweeping eastward toward the MS Valley late. Within the southwest flow regime, two distinct waves are forecast, one over OH, and another moving from the Red River toward the lower MS Valley. At the surface, an elongated boundary/wind shift will extend from OH into central TX during the day, with a moist air mass to the east. Instability looks to be strongest MS/AL southwestward into TX, with dewpoints in the 70s F. ....East TX/Arklatex/Lower MS and TN Valleys... A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to be ongoing over parts of northern/northeast TX, and this activity is expected to continue south with the boundary. Locally strong outflow/gusts are possible. Additional activity will develop along the length of the boundary during the day, across the MS Valley and toward the TN Valley, with multicellular and/or linear storm mode producing sporadic severe gusts. ....OH/PA... Models indicate ongoing rain and thunderstorms early Wednesday over OH, within a zone of warm advection with southwest 850 mb winds. Uncertainty exists as to how strong the low-level shear will be within the warm advection zone, but a warm front should move northward across OH and parts of western PA. Instability will likely be the limiting factor to severe potential. In addition, some models indicate a stronger midlevel wave with much stronger 850 mb winds, resulting in both stronger SRH values and theta-e advection. Given the conditional threat of rotating storms, the Marginal Risk as been nudged northward. ...Jewell.. 09/23/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .