Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 23 2025 12:10:57

AWUS01 KWNH 231210
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-231709-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1124
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Areas affected...southwestern Missouri, far northern Arkansas, far
northeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231209Z - 231709Z

Summary...Isolated, spotty flash flood potential exists for a few
hours this morning (through 17Z/noon CDT).

Discussion...A loosely organized complex of storms was located
near the MOKSAROK (Missouri/Kansas/Oklahoma/Arkansas state border
region) this morning.  The loosely organized nature of this
complex was favoring limited amounts of convective training -
particularly in southwestern Missouri where downstream
thunderstorm cells were developing along a warm front near the
region very close to the Springfield area.  Spots of 1 inch/hr
rain rates were being detected/estimated per MRMS within the
region of training.  Coincidentally, these rain rates were falling
across areas of the Missouri Ozarks that can be flood prone in
sensitive areas.  With FFG thresholds in the 1.5 inch/hr range in
spots, any modest uptick in rain rates could cause isolated flash
flood issues in the short term.

The longevity of this flash flood risk is a bit in question,
however.  As storms continue to move/propagate east, they will
eventually depart the region of greatest combined instability and
low-level convergence (currently focused along the OK/KS border).
Furthermore, radar data doesn't suggest that ongoing activity has
sufficient organization for persistence deeper into the
Missouri/Arkansas Ozarks east of the U.S. Highway 65 and 63
corridors - especially in the absence of any larger-scale ascent.=20
Thus - an already isolated flash flood risk may gradually become
more conditional with time and eastward extent across the
discussion area.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4YHEa8QUip9B0zHTI9fAaeoGmUgMGi9cFygNsngIv5YUOVxu6DX4SS7VFSQjub_tLoK-=
CUm_kqXQ0K6SBPpkh6J0QUU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38359359 38089199 37389075 36539030 35999152=20
            35829445 36369597 37399511 38219470=20

=3D =3D =3D
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