Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Sep 23 2025 00:53:12 ACUS01 KWNS 230053 SWODY1 SPC AC 230051 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight across portions of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid Missouri Valley, and Ohio Valley. Large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ....Southern and central Plains... Evening water vapor imagery shows a convectively augmented mid-level vort max ahead of a broad upper trough over the Rockies, moving into the southern/central High Plains. Ascent from this features is forecast to intensify this evening aiding in the development of 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet. Persistent southeasterly flow should continue transporting mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints into parts of the central and southern Plains tonight. The intensification of the low-level jet this evening and associated moist advection will allow scattered to numerous storms to develop within a moderate unstable environment after 03z. 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a mix of organized multicells and supercells. Large to very large hail is a possibility with initial, likely elevated, supercells into the early overnight. Increasing ascent and the low-level jet should favor upscale growth into a cluster or MCS over portions of KS/OK tonight. Severe gusts will likely become the primary hazard. A couple of tornadoes are also possible given large low-level hodographs and some potential for supercells or embedded mesovorticies. These storms should continue eastward toward the KS/MO/OK border by 12z tomorrow. ....Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest... Broad and weak low-level warm advection is expected to strengthen this evening near an east-west front draped over portions of the mid Missouri Valley and Midwest. Convection currently developing along and south of the front should continue to increase in coverage and intensity tonight aided by weak ascent from several shortwave perturbations passing overhead. Moderate buoyancy, steep mid-level laps rates and some veering with height could support organized multicells or a few supercell structures capable of hail and damaging gusts. Some upscale growth is expected tonight with one or more clusters persisting across the Missouri Valley and into the central Plains. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible. ....Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Several lines/clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing this evening and expected to persist into early tonight. Aided by ascent from a broad shortwave trough modestly enhanced southwesterly low/mid-level winds will persist, supporting the loosely organized multicell clusters. Instability is forecast to gradually wane with the loss of diurnal heating, though a moist boundary layer should support occasional damaging gusts through this evening with the stronger clusters. ...Lyons.. 09/23/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .