Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2119
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Sep 23 2025 00:19:12

ACUS11 KWNS 230019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230018=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-230215-

Mesoscale Discussion 2119
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0718 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 230018Z - 230215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase across western Kansas
into the Oklahoma Panhandle later this evening. Hail and wind are
possible with this activity and a watch is being considered, though
timing is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Midlevel heights are being suppressed across the
southern Rockies this evening with an apparent vort over northern
NM, ejecting east-northeast toward the High Plains. Latest radar
imagery supports this with a substantial amount of weak convection
arcing from northeast NM to northern Otero County NM. A secondary
short wave is digging southeast across eastern UT, and this feature
will advance into western CO late this evening. Net result will be a
responsive LLJ that should increase across the eastern TX Panhandle
into southwestern KS.

Southeasterly boundary-layer flow is currently noted across the
eastern TX Panhandle into eastern CO. This is contributing to a
corridor of higher instability extending across the High Plains. 00z
soundings from DDC and AMA exhibit very steep midlevel lapse rates,
and large-scale ascent/moistening at midlevels is contributing to
the aforementioned arcing band of convection. Latest thinking is
sustained low-level warm advection will eventually aid robust
thunderstorm development across western KS. This activity should
propagate southeast, encouraged by the increasing LLJ. Hail and wind
are the primary concerns and a watch is being considered.

...Darrow/Kerr.. 09/23/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4HsIcZKCWeix960z22ELXxicGH3Q4v4TLybyr8AWEAP3Hg19W-MLds5wm1AHdT9VG8MEGr53S=
CxnvHBLEh8qCNpYNIk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   36520127 38670200 38889985 37199883 36289976 36520127=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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